All calls
US-TREASURY-CURVEtreasury
US-TREASURY-CURVE
YIELDS_RISING
GradedEND OF DAY
CALL call:2026-09-04:US-TREASURY-CURVE:bud-treasury-v1.0.0
Published Sep 8, 2026
Frozen at publication
DirectionYIELDS_RISING
Score—
Published (UTC)Sep 8, 2026
Research horizon20 trading days
Reference close—
20-session risk band—
Benchmark—
Signal strength—
Model versionbud-treasury-v1.0.0
Sourcetwelvedata_daily_history + quotron_quotes
As of2026-09-04
On confidence
Data quality: HighSignal strength: —
Not a probability of profit. model/data confidence — NOT probability of profit (internal score 85%, retained for audit.)
Outcome
WINGraded Oct 6, 2026
Return
—
vs Benchmark
—
Thesis invalidation
Invalidated if the 10Y 20-observation change crosses back through 8.0000 bps (frozen threshold).
Scenarios — model band, not certainty
Bull
—
Base
—
Bear
—
Supporting factors
- ▸change 20obs bps
- ▸slope 10Y 2Y bps
Opposing factors
—
Immutable receipt
sha256:d8cc3ddeb6e1a2e086229bf7c65a23285d9068c2eb051a5f95437b967e94298a
Written once at publication. Never rewritten.
Audit trail
- Sep 8, 2026 · Draft created
- Sep 8, 2026 · Approved & locked
- Sep 8, 2026 · Locked to snapshot
- Oct 6, 2026 · Graded
Research and education only — not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell, and not personalized. Model volatility bands and scores are not guarantees. Past or simulated results do not predict future outcomes.