All calls
SPYetf
SPY
BULLISH
GradedEND OF DAY
CALL call:2026-09-04:SPY:bud-equity-etf-v1.0.0
Published Sep 8, 2026
Frozen at publication
DirectionBULLISH
Score31.32
Published (UTC)Sep 8, 2026
Research horizon20 trading days
Reference close$770.19
20-session risk band$753.06 – $787.32
BenchmarkSPY
Signal strengthModerate
Model versionbud-equity-etf-v1.0.0
Sourcetwelvedata_daily_history + quotron_quotes
As of2026-09-04
On confidence
Data quality: HighSignal strength: Moderate
Not a probability of profit. model/data confidence — NOT probability of profit (internal score 80%, retained for audit.)
Outcome
WINGraded Oct 6, 2026
Return
—
vs Benchmark
—
Thesis invalidation
Invalidated if daily close falls below 760.8614 (entry 770.1900 - 1.5*ATR14)
Scenarios — model band, not certainty
Bull
Target $787.32 · 2.22% · Upper 1-std model band over horizon
Base
Target $770.19 · 0.00% · Reference close (no drift assumed)
Bear
Target $753.06 · -2.22% · Lower 1-std model band over horizon
Supporting factors
- ▸trend ma · 13.22
- ▸momentum returns · 9.31
- ▸volatility risk · 5.89
Opposing factors
- ▸volume · -2.47
Immutable receipt
sha256:dfb3f7c487c841e058a7430ef60d3d265696a754cf67cc0b9d9d32348ef89819
Written once at publication. Never rewritten.
Audit trail
- Sep 8, 2026 · Draft created
- Sep 8, 2026 · Approved & locked
- Sep 8, 2026 · Locked to snapshot
- Oct 6, 2026 · Graded
Research and education only — not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell, and not personalized. Model volatility bands and scores are not guarantees. Past or simulated results do not predict future outcomes.